Growth and Livelihood - The Slippery
Slopes of E-Learning: April
5th, 2002
By Paul Stacey
Networking.
For me the past few months have been a blur of of e-learning engagements,
speaking, "demo"ing, planning, workshoping, designing, writing and
producing. I should also add listening, for more than anything networking puts
me out there listening to the e-learning dreams and realities of others.
Everywhere
I go the network whispers and whirls around a common e-learning vortex - growth.
IDC
says the Canadian corporate e-learning market estimated at $145 million in 2000,
is expected to grow to $1.5 billion by 2004. The U.S. corporate e-learning
market estimated at $1.1 billion in 2000 is expected to grow to $11.4 billion by
2003. Dramatic growth, and that's just the corporate e-learning market.
And
those are just IDC's numbers. There are lots of numbers being thrown around
about e-learning. And while pundits numbers don't always agree one thing all the
predictions have in common is growth, rapid growth.
Having
crossed the chasm e-learning is now climbing the early majority curve, in all
sectors - K-12, higher ed, workplace and consumer.
The
Canadian Conference Board (see research reports at www.conferenceboard.ca/education)
reports that 47% of Canadian companies used e-learning in 2000 with another 87%
planning to use. Classroom learning dropped from 53% in 1999 to 46% in 2000
while e-learning increased from 17% to 24%. Growth.
The
top reasons for Canadian employers to use learning technologies are e-learning's
ability to provide just-in-time learning, cost effectiveness, learner control
and learning need fit. These factors, along with the way e-learning is
increasingly positioned as a strategy for improving business performance and
customer experience generate fuel. Accelerants for e-learning growth.
And
yet while the network whirls and whispers growth, these are hard times.
Eduventures
(www.eduventures.com)
this week reported education industry private investment totals for the first
quarter of 2002 fell to $47.7 million, representing a 70 percent decline from a
relatively strong fourth quarter of 2001 and marking the poorest quarterly
performance in the past three years. Getting venture capital funds for
e-learning companies is like getting water from a stone.
E-learning
is a form of technology and the technology markets have taken a beating. IT
expenditures have focused on security. Stock prices have fallen. Technology
company hiring has been frozen. There have been layoffs - myself included.
Budgets
for corporate learning and training have been cut or frozen, as have university
and college budgets.
Among
business indicators, one of Canada's lowest scores is for skills training.
Canadian firms under-invest in training compared with firms in other countries.
Only 34% of Canadian workers receive employer sponsored job-related training,
compared to 55% in the UK and 44% in the US.
Can?
Will? Canada transition from a resource based to knowledge based economy? How?
Industry
Canada and Human Resource Development Canada (HRDC) recently released two
innovation papers that focus on these issues. See www.innovationstrategy.gc.ca
"Companies
that are successful at adopting new technologies and practises are those that
invest most in training and have the most highly skilled workforce."
(2002 HRDC Innovation Paper - Knowledge Matters)
"Universities
act as magnets for investment and incubators of knowledge and talent, developing
vibrant clusters of economic activity."
(2002
HRDC Innovation Paper - Knowledge Matters)
Strong
words, and I believe them, yet neither the federal nor provincial governments
have e-learning policies of any kind.
Will
Canada's federal and provincial governments become e-learning leaders? Early
adopters of e-learning as a change agent within government itself? Will
e-learning be an on-line government enabler?
Imagine
what might happen if Canada acted nationally on e-learning.
While
local and national markets for Canadian e-learning companies have been slippery
slopes. A recent Industry Canada study of e-learning suppliers in B.C. reveals
that over 60% of their revenue comes from export sales. Canadian e-learning
company's are having more success selling their product abroad than they are at
home.
Imagine
what might happen if Canada, provincially and federally, strategically made
e-learning a sector of the new economy and championed e-learning as an export.
When
does e-learning transition from a public service to a livelihood?
Well
on a personal note, as many of you know, for the past four years I've been part
of the team creating a new university - the Technical University of BC (TechBC) www.techbc.ca.
I'm proud of the resulting vision, spirit, and community. And so it is with
considerable regret I say that, as part of the provincial governments decision
to close TechBC, my position as Director there was terminated March 21, 2002.
I
publicly want to thank TechBC and all my TechBC colleagues over the years! I
learned so much - a portion of which I have shared with you, my readers, over
the past two years.
Those
of you keen to further develop your awareness and understanding of e-learning
should take note of the Corporate eLearning Workshop and Conference here in
Vancouver May 8th & 9th. See www.newmediabc.com
for more info.
While
the technology market continues its slumber at the low tide mark, when it turns,
and it will, with it will rise the fortunes of e-learning, BC, and Canada. I'll
be in the water. Hope to see you there. This e-learning wave is still building.
Paul
Stacey, recently terminated as Director of Corporate Education at the Technical
University of British Columbia, is temporarily on the beach. Surfing invitations
welcome.
Paul is
pleased to continue writing this column and acting as the Canadian Correspondent
for LearningWeek Live http://www.learningweek.com
an interactive webcast from New York featuring stories about the people,
technology, and business of learning. Contact: Paul
Stacey
What Do You Think? Talk Back To Paul Stacey
E-Learning: An
opinionated monthly column exploring the current use,
future potential, and commercial value of e-learning in
BC’s high tech sector.
E-Learning
Archive: An index and links to all the E-learning columns Paul has written
for T-Net going back to April 2000.
